002 PERSONAL APPEARANCE, COMPLETE
003 PHOTOS
004 PERSONAL HISTORY, COMPLETE
005 RECENT ACTIVITIES (2 WEEK UPDATE)
006 FINANCIAL HISTORY, COMPLETE
007 POLITICAL HISTORY, COMPLETE
008 MISCELLANEOUS
009 CROSS REFERENCES LISTING, COMPLETE
Graves stared at the categories with some distaste. It was disturbing that the government should have so much information on a private individual - particularly one who had committed no criminal act at any time.
Then on an impulse he pushed the `Wipe' button and the screen went blank. He typed in `Graves, John Norman', followed by his own call-up number. He sat back and watched the numbers print out on the screen:
GRAVES, JOHN NORMAN 445798054
INTELLIGENCE, DEPT STATE/INVESTIGATIONS (DOM)
TELEPHONE: 808-415-7800 X 4305
FILE CONTENTS CANNOT BE DISPLAYED ON THIS
CONSOLE WITHOUT AUTHORIZATION VQ
He hesitated, then punched `Auth: VQ'
AUTHORIZATION VQ RECORDED
STATE NAME
After another hesitation, he punched `Phelps, Richard D'.
RECORD CALL-UP NAME AS PHELPS, RICHARD D. FILE CONTENTS CANNOT BE DISPLAYED ON THIS CONSOLE TO THE ABOVENAMED PERSON. CALL-UP PERSON IS ADVISED TO ACQUIRE NTK AUTHORIZATION FROM DEPARTMENT HEAD.
Graves smiled. So even Phelps couldn't call up Graves' file without a special need-to-know authorization. Who could call it up? Feeling whimsical, he typed out `This is the President of the United States.'
The screen glowed:
RECORD CALL-UP AS PRESIDE NTOFTHEUNITEDSTATES IS THIS A CODE NAME
STATE GIVEN NAME
Graves sighed. Computers just didn't show any respect. He pressed the `Wipe' button and returned to the question of Wright.
He didn't really know what he was looking for. Graves had supplied most of the computerized file contents himself. But perhaps someone else had added to it. He pushed the 008 sequence calling up miscellaneous information. That category had been empty two weeks ago. Now it contained an academic history of Wright's work in mathematics, prepared by `S. Vessen, State/Anal/412'. Whoever that was. He had a moment of pleasure at the thought that State's analysis people were abbreviated `anal'. It was fitting.
He turned to the information itself:
HX ACADEMIC - JOHN WRIGHT IBIBLIO FOLLOWS:
008/02)
WRIGHT STUDIED MATHEMATICS AT PRINCETON
UNDER REIMANN. FROM THE START HIS INTEREST,
LIKE THAT OF HIS TEACHER, WAS HEAVILY
STATISTICAL AND PROBABILISTIC. HIS FIRST PAPER
CONCERNED STOCK MARKET FLUCTUATIONS. THIS
WAS WRITTEN IN 1942, BEFORE HIGH SPEED DIGITAL
COMPUTERS WERE AVAILABLE. HOWEVER, WITHOUT
SUCH TOOLS WRIGHT DECIDED THAT THE STOCK
MARKET WAS TOTALLY RANDOM IN ITS BEHAVIOUR.
(THAT IS, THE CHANCE THAT A GIVEN STOCK WOULD
GO UP OR DOWN ON ANY DAY BORE NO
RELATIONSHIP TO WHAT IT HAD DONE THE PREVIOUS
DAY.) THIS FACT WAS FINALLY CONFIRMED BEYOND
ALL DOUBT IN 1961
WRIGHT WAS ALSO INTERESTED IN SPORTS AND GAMBLING. IN 1944 HE WROTE AN AMUSING SHORT ARTICLE 'ON BEING DUE'. IN IT HE ARGUED CORRECTLY THAT THE ORDINARY NOTION THAT A MAN IS 'DUE FOR A HIT' IF HE HAS BEEN RECENTLY UNSUCCESSFUL AT BAT IS TOTALLY FALLACIOUS. EACH TIME AT BAT IS A SEPARATE EVENT.
HE WAS ALSO INTERESTED IN HISTORICAL CONTEXTS: THE FACT THAT JOHN ADAMS, JAMES MONROE, AND THOMAS JEFFERSON ALL DIED ON JULY 4th, AND SO ON. HE WROTE A PAPER ON ASSIGNING CAUSATION TO HISTORICAL AND POLITICAL EVENTS. IN THIS WORK HE WAS STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THEORETICAL PHYSICISTS.
HE SHOWED THAT YOU CAN NEVER DETERMINE 'THE CHIEF REASON' FOR THE AMERICAN CIVIL WAR, NAPOLEON'S DEFEAT AT WATERLOO, THE FALL OF THE ROMAN EMPIRE, OR ANY OTHER HISTORICAL EVENT. THE CHIEF REASON CANNOT BE KNOWN IN ANY PRECISE SENSE. FOR ANY EVENT THERE ARE HUNDREDS OR THOUSANDS OF CONTRIBUTING CAUSES, AND NO WAY TO ASSIGN PRIORITIES TO THESE CAUSES. HISTORIANS HAVE ATTACKED THE WRIGHT THESIS VIGOROUSLY SINCE IT TENDS TO PUT THEM OUT OF A JOB. HE WAS, HOWEVER, MATHEMATICALLY CORRECT BEYOND DOUBT.
FINALLY WRIGHT TURNED TO THE GENERAL THEORY OF INTERACTIONS. FOR SIMPLICITY HE STUDIED TWO-COMPONENT INTERACTIONS LEADING TO A SINGLE EVENT OR OUTCOME. HE BECAME QUITE KNOWLEDGEABLE IN THIS AREA.
SUMMARY: WRIGHT IS A TALENTED MATHEMATICIAN WHOSE PERSONAL INTERESTS FALL IN THE AREA OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS AS THEY APPLY TO HUMAN ACTIVITIES SUCH AS SPORTS, GAMBLING, AND THE INTERPRETATION OF HISTORY. HIS DEVELOPMENT AS A MATHEMATICIAN DISPOSED HIM TO BE INTERESTED IN TWO-COMPONENT INTERACTIONS LEADING TO A SINGLE EVENT OR OUTCOME.
Graves stared at the screen. The notion of twocomponent interactions fascinated him. It seemed to have all sorts of connotations. He punched buttons and looked at the bibliography, which was not revealing. He looked at the abstracts of articles written by Wright. They were equally unrevealing. Then he saw that a final study was available: Apparently S. Vessen had applied a statistical analysis of his own to Wright's work.
S. VESSEN: ANALYSIS OF WORD FREQUENCIES IN
PAPERS OF JOHN WRIGHT.
THE FOLLOWING WORDS APPEAR MORE FREQUENTLY
THAN EXPECTED ACCORDING TO RATIOS OF TOTAL
WORDAGE FOR MATHEMATICAL TREATISES
PROBABILITY
COINCIDENCE
GAUSSIAN
INSTABILITY
INTERACTION
TWO-COMPONENT
IMPOTENCE
Graves frowned, staring at the last word. Then he pressed the `Wipe' button a final time and hurried to catch his plane.
HOUR 10
EN ROUTE TO
SAN DIEGO
7 AM PDT
The aircraft banked steeply over the oil fields of Long Beach and headed south towards San Diego. Graves stared out the window, thinking of Wright's file. Then he thought about his own. He wondered what it looked like, the information displayed on the unblinking cathode-ray screen in sharp white easy-to-read block letters. He wondered how accurate it was, how fair, how honest, how kind.
Graves was thirty-six years old. He had worked for the government fifteen years - nearly half his life. That fact implied a dedication which had never been there; from the start his career in government had been a kind of accident.
