‘It's all right. Ramage here knows nothing about it yet, but he is likely to be involved. You know him, I see.'

The Secretary of State nodded absent-mindedly. 'I guessed I'd find you here and came at once. What do you think about it?'

'I believe it,' St Vincent said firmly. 'I've been expecting something like this. That's why his Lordship,' he gestured towards Nelson, 'has been given this "Squadron upon a Particular Service."'

'Quite so,' Lord Hawkesbury said. 'But the agent makes a very bald statement!'

St Vincent shrugged his shoulders. 'He could have used a thousand words to say the same thing, but mercifully he didn't.'

'But he gives no proof,' Lord Hawkesbury complained.

'He never does. He is a member of Bonaparte's staff, and he knows we are aware of that. But if you'll look at the report again -' he motioned to Nelson to pass the sheet of paper, 'you'll see it's so worded that no one reading it could guess. It'd be a death sentence for him if it was intercepted.'

'Very well,' the Secretary of State said reluctantly, glancing at the page. When he had finished reading it he said querulously: ‘The more I read it, the less it seems to tell me!'

‘There are two separate items,' St Vincent said patiently, controlling his notoriously short temper. 'First, the troops. The fact that another 50,000 men are at this moment marching towards Boulogne and Calais means a considerable reinforcement: we know Bonaparte has 100,000 there already.'

'But is that likely?'

'Why not? Since he signed the Treaty of Luneville and put the Austrians out of business, Bonaparte isn't fighting anyone on the Continent of Europe -'

'I know that,' Lord Hawkesbury interrupted impatiently.

‘I know you know that,' St Vincent said calmly, 'I mention it as a foundation for the point I am about to make, not as fresh news.'

' 'Pologies,' Hawkesbury said, 'I've had a tiring day.'

'Well, Bonaparte has had three or four months to re-equip his armies and make new plans -'

'And he's decided Great Britain is his last enemy,' Hawkesbury said in a return of his impatient autocratic manner.

‘That's reasonably obvious,' the First Lord said, clearly controlling himself with difficulty, 'but until now, until the early summer, he lacked allies.'

'What allies?' Hawkesbury was puzzled, as St Vincent had intended him to be.

‘The east wind and a calm sea,' St Vincent said grimly, 'and a new moon.'

'When can you anticipate that trio coinciding?'

‘The new moon is predictable enough - three weeks' time. The east wind - anyone's guess. We've always anticipated that Bonaparte would have to pick a new moon period, but we need more specific intelligence, otherwise we'd have to bring the Channel Fleet up to the Strait of Dover once a month.'

'An east wind, eh?' Hawkesbury mused. 'What if Bonaparte can't wait for it? Can he risk sailing his Invasion Flotilla in a west wind?’

'He could, but ideally he wants if not an east wind then some wind with east in it, because his barges won't go windward. They need a following wind.'

'Are you saying we're safe with a west wind? I've never heard that view before.'

'A strong wind with any west in it will keep 'em in port; but we aren't completely safe in a light west wind or a calm; the small barges and gun boats could be rowed across. Hard work but possible.'

'A long row, eh? That'll give your frigates and line-of-battle ships a chance to get amongst them!'

St Vincent shook his head. 'I'm afraid a sea as calm as that would mean no wind, so the fleet and the frigates would be becalmed.'

'Of course,' Hawkesbury snapped, annoyed with himself for not realizing that. 'Very well, the agent hasn't told us much, then.'

'We've only discussed the first item,' St Vincent said sourly, 'which is that 50,000 extra troops are making for Boulogne. The second item -' he picked up the paper, 'says less but tells us more: Bonaparte is about to ask Bruix - he's the admiral commanding the Invasion Flotilla, as you know - how soon the flotilla can sail.'

'Hmm - I can't see that tells us much,' Hawkesbury said.

St Vincent folded the paper with great deliberation and put it down on the table. 'On the face of it, it tells us that Bonaparte the General considers the Army is ready to cross the Channel, and he's asking Bruix the Admiral for the earliest date the Flotilla can embark it. The question is urgent only if the Flotilla can be made ready fairly soon. In three weeks' time,' he said ominously, 'or a month after that.'

'Quite so,' Hawkesbury said, 'so that narrows the date down to two periods of a very few days - I gather a full moon is no use?'

'No. The French want a new moon - setting two or three hours after it is dark - to get their vessels safely out of harbour without collisions and too much confusion. After that they want darkness for the crossing, to put our ships at a disadvantage, and dawn should see them just off our beaches.'

'If the wind is right.'

'As you say,' St Vincent agreed.

'Then what more do you want to know, my dear Admiral?' Hawkesbury asked, obviously puzzled.

'Well, sir, the problem is - we think . . .' he broke off and gestured to Lord Nelson, who put his hand down on the table and leaned forward slightly in a movement that reminded Ramage of a spring being wound up taut.

'Bonaparte may have marched the troops and asked Bruix when he will be ready just to spur on his generals and admirals, sir,' Nelson said quietly. 'He has another three months of summer left, another three suitable moon periods, and we can't be sure he won't postpone it at the last minute. If we assume the next new moon period is the real date and start moving the fleet round to the Strait of Dover and mobilizing our defences, should Bonaparte then postpone the attempt for a month he is bound to conclude that we knew of his plans, since we made no such move at the last new moon.'

'But surely preparing ourselves at each new moon is a logical reaction?' Hawkesbury asked.

'Yes - but we would rather that Bonaparte does not discover what our precise plans are.'

'But,' Hawkesbury protested, 'if he knows the Fleet is ready, he's less likely to sail!'

Now Ramage saw Nelson in a fresh light: he was a new man, his single good eye shining, his face flushed, the fingers of his hand drumming on the table.

'We can't smash Bonaparte's invasion plan if he keeps his ships and men safe in harbour, sir. We want his Army out on the open sea, so that we can sink or burn every ship. It takes a great army - and heavy losses - to destroy another army of 150,000 men on land: an army we can't muster. But our fleet can destroy such an army at sea - can and will, providing it sails.'

Hawkesbury was worried. 'It's a deuced risk: something the Cabinet ought to consider. Better keep the devils bottled up in Boulogne and Calais, I say.'

'Not while I occupy the office of First Lord,' St Vincent interrupted. ‘I have a great respect for Mr Addison, but I only joined his government on the clear understanding that I was given a free hand.'

'Oh, I agree,' Hawkesbury said hastily, realizing he had stepped beyond his professional responsibility, which was foreign affairs. 'I was expressing a personal view, you understand; my colleagues probably would not agree with me.'

'Be that as it may,' St Vincent said uncompromisingly, 'I assure you the Admiralty want the French to sail because it is confident that they can't land in England, so -'

'Very well,' Lord Hawkesbury interrupted. 'Now. why can't we rely on our agents - especially this man in Paris - to warn us in time enough if and when Bonaparte decides to sail his flotilla?'

Nelson glanced at St Vincent before replying: 'It is not the kind of information our agents in Boulogne - such as they are - will discover. That throws the responsibility on to the man in Paris. Unfortunately he never travels with Bonaparte. It seems that Bonaparte has a special staff that travels with him, and his regular staff remains in Paris.'