But winter's coming, Anjo was thinking, the ache in his bowels distracting him. I hate winter, season of death, the sad season, sky sad, sea sad, land sad and ugly and freezing, trees bare, and the cold that twists your joints, reminding you how old you are. He was a greying man of forty-six, daimyo of Mikawa, had been the center of roju power since the dictator tairo Ii had been assassinated four years ago.

Whereas you, puppy, he thought angrily, you're only a two-month appointee to the Council and a four-week Guardian--both dangerous political appointments implanted over our protests. It's time your wings were clipped. "Of course we all value your advice," he said, his voice honeyed, then added, not meaning it as both knew, "For two days the gai-jin have been preparing their fleet for battle, troops drilling openly and tomorrow their leader arrives.

What's your solution?"

"The same as yesterday, official scroll or not: we send another apology "for the regrettable mishap" laced with sarcasm they will never understand, from an official they will never know, and timed to arrive before the leader gai-jin leaves Yokohama asking for a further delay to "make enquiries."

If that does not satisfy him and he or they come to Yedo, let them. We send the usual low-level official, nonbinding on us to their Legation to treat with them, giving them a little soup but no fish. We delay, and delay."

"Meanwhile it's time to exercise our hereditary Shogunate right and order Sanjiro to hand over the killers for punishment at once, to pay an indemnity, again through us, at once, and into house arrest and retirement at once. We order him!"

Anjo said harshly. "You're inexperienced in high Shogunate matters."

Keeping his temper and wishing he could send Anjo into immediate retirement for his stupidity and bad manners, Yoshi said, "If we order Sanjiro we will be disobeyed, therefore we will be forced to go to war, and Satsuma is too strong with too many allies. There's been no war for two hundred and fifty years. We're not ready for war. War is..."

There was a sudden peculiar silence.

Involuntarily both men gripped their swords.

The teacups and teapot began to rattle. Afar off the earth rumbled, the whole tower shifted slightly, then again, and again. The quake persisted for about thirty seconds. Then it was gone, as suddenly as it had arrived. Impassively they waited, watching the cups.

No aftershock. Still no aftershock.

More waiting throughout the castle and Yedo. All living creatures waiting. Nothing.

Yoshi sipped some tea then meticulously centered the cup in its saucer and Anjo envied him his control. Inwardly Yoshi was in turmoil and he thought, Today the gods smiled on me but what about the next shock, or the next, or the one after that--any moment now, or in a candle of time or this afternoon, or later tonight or tomorrow? Karma!

Safe today but soon there will be another bad one, a killer earthquake, like seven years ago when I almost died and a hundred thousand people perished in Yedo alone in the earthquake and in the fires that always follow, not counting the tens of thousands washed out to sea and drowned in the tsunami wave that swept unheralded out of the sea that night--one of them my lovely Yuriko, then the passion of my life.

He willed himself to dominate his fear. "War is completely unwise now, Satsuma is too strong, the Tosa and Choshu legions will become his allies openly, we're not strong enough to crush them alone." Tosa and Choshu were fiefs, far from Yedo, both historic enemy to the Shogunate.

"The most important daimyos will come to our banner, if summoned, and the rest follow."

Anjo tried to hide the effort it took him to unlock his grip on his sword, still terrified.

Yoshi was alert and well trained, and noticed the lapse and docketed it for future use, pleased that he had seen into his enemy. "They won't, not yet. They'll delay, bluster, whine, and never help us smash Satsuma. They have no balls."

"If not now, when?" Anjo's fury spilled out, whipped by his fear and loathing of earthquakes.

He had been in a bad one as a child, his father becoming a torch, his mother and two brothers cinders before his eyes. Ever since, with even the slightest quake, he relived the day and smelled their burning flesh and heard their screams. "We have to humble that dog sooner or later. Why not now?"

"Because we have to wait until we're better armed. They--Satsuma, Tosa and Choshu--have a few modern weapons, cannon and rifles, we don't know how many. And several steamships."

"Sold to them by gai-jin against Shogunate wishes!"

"Bought by them because of previous weakness."

Anjo's face reddened. "I'm not responsible for that!"

"Nor I!" Yoshi's fingers on the hilt tightened. "Those fiefs are better armed than we are, whatever the reason. So sorry, we have to wait, the Satsuma fruit is not yet rotten enough for us to risk a war that by ourselves we cannot win.

We're isolated, Sanjiro is not." His voice became sharper. "But I agree that soon there must be a reckoning."

"Tomorrow I will ask the Council to issue the order."

"For the sake of the Shogunate, you and all Toranaga clans, I hope the others will listen to me!"

"Tomorrow we will see--Sanjiro's head should be put on a spike and exhibited as an example to all traitors."

"I agree Sanjiro must have ordered the Tokaido killing just to embarrass us," Yoshi said. "That will madden the gai-jin. Our only solution is to delay. Our mission to Europe is due back any day now and then our troubles should be over."

Eight months before, in January, the Shogunate had sent the first official deputation from Japan by steamship to America and Europe, with secret orders to renegotiate the Treaties-- the roju considered them "unauthorized tentative agreements"--with British, French and American Governments, and to cancel or delay any further opening of any ports. "Their orders were clear. By now the Treaties will be voided."

Anjo said ominously, "So, if not war, you agree the time has come to send Sanjiro onwards."

The younger man was too cautious to agree openly, wondering what Anjo was planning, or had already planned. He eased his swords more comfortably and pretended to consider the question, finding his new appointment very much to his liking. Once more I'm in at center of power. Oh yes, Sanjiro helped put me here but only for his own vile purpose: to destroy me by making me ever more publicly responsible for all the troubles these cursed gai-jin have brought, therefore setting me up as a prime target for the cursed shishi--and to usurp our hereditary rights, wealth and Shogunate.

Never mind, I'm aware of what he and his running dog Katsumata plan, what his real intentions are against us, and those of his allies, the Tosa and the Choshu. He won't succeed, I swear it by my ancestors.

"How would you eliminate Sanjiro?"

Anjo's brow darkened, remembering his final violent row with the Satsuma daimyo only a few days earlier.

"I repeat," Sanjiro had said imperiously, "obey the Emperor's suggestions: Convene a meeting of all senior daimyos at once, humbly ask them to form a permanent Council to advise, reform and run the Shogunate, quash your infamous and unauthorized gai-jin agreements, order all ports closed to gai-jin, and if they don't go, expel them at once!"

"I keep reminding you, it is only the Shogunate's right to set foreign policy, any policy, not the Emperor's, nor yours! We both know you've deceived him," Anjo had told him, hating him for his lineage, his legions, his riches, and obvious, abundant good health.

"The suggestions are ridiculous and unenforceable!

We've kept the peace for two and a half cent--"' "Yes, for Toranaga aggrandizement. If you refuse to obey our rightful liege lord, the Emperor, then resign or commit seppuku. You chose a boy to be Shogun, that traitor tairo Ii signed the "treaties"--it's Bakufu responsibility gai-jin are here and that is Toranaga responsibility!"